Electoral Math: Your Campaign In Digital

Over the last three election cycles, the benefits of analytics and online marketing have become legendary in the political world. With Nate Silver hitting the talk show circuit, countless articles describing Obama’s 2012 digital campaign, and serious analysis like “Inside the Cave,” there has been an endless stream of endorsements for micro-targeting, email and online campaigning.

But even with all the evidence of the impact of digital, most state and local campaigns are still just “checking the box” in this area. Having worked with dozens of U.S. and state senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial campaigns since 2008, I find the reason most campaigns go short on digital is because they struggle to connect digital investments with electoral math.

Successful campaigns all begin with an evaluation of the voters. Campaigns count voters by their party registration, turnout history, potential to align and likelihood to contribute. Based on the counts and calculations, each campaign will come up with the number of votes they believe are needed for victory. Sometimes, though, the numbers just don’t add up.

I have recently come across a situation involving a candidate running for statewide office. History suggests that in order to win he will need a minimum of 1.2 million votes. Even though he has been in the public spotlight for several years, polling revealed he suffers from a lack of name recognition — as much as a 30% recognition gap among Independents. The electoral math in this case says he will need to take at least 600,000 out of 1 million likely Independent votes. If 30% of the Independents have never heard of the candidate, he will need the votes of 85% of the remaining Independents in order to win — a very tough challenge. Increasing the number of voters who do recognize him is critical.

Traditionally, candidates have used television to increase name recognition, but in every election cycle this seems to be getting harder. Cable TV and news audiences are getting smaller and more partisan all the time and campaigns don’t want to spend TV money preaching to the converted. Introducing a candidate to voters requires spreading the buy across many different channels and time slots. With a 30-second spot during a prime-time cable news show costing at least $1,500 — and delivering a reach of less than 2% at the state level — campaigns can burn through big bucks without moving name recognition needle. So what are some of the alternatives?

As we learned in 2008 — and again in 2012 — email should play a fundamental role in every campaign. Although email may only reach 30 to 40% of a targeted voter population – that is still four times the reach of cable television.

Participating in social media is another valuable approach, but one that has limits. Because it is opt-in by design, voters need to proactively seek out the candidate in order to get involved. Social has the advantage of attracting “true believers” and provides an excellent rallying point for supporters. As important an investment as it is, the opt-in nature limits its ability to improve name recognition.
According to some estimates, more than 85% of voters are online, making digital one of the best advertising options for campaigns. Online ads can take many forms — banners, mobile, apps and pre-roll and YouTube videos — and can reach the right voter whether they are on a computer, smartphone or tablet. Audience targeting becomes critical for online advertising to work effectively and there are different approaches to consider.

Onboarding — essentially taking existing voter lists and matching them to anonymous cookies — is one popular option. The challenge with cookies is that only a third of unique users have an active cookie at any given time — and any tactic that can only reach a third of potential voters isn’t going to win many elections.

Perhaps the most promising approach is zone targeting. First applied to politics during the 2012 election cycle, zone targeting was adapted from retail trade area marketing and can best be thought of as providing a broadcast style model on the Internet. Zones allow campaigns to bid on qualified pre-targeted audiences based on voter history, demographics and location in real time. Zones allow campaigns to use online micro-targeting (each zone typically includes only 2-10 households) to reach 100% of prospective voters that are online regardless of device.

For our candidate with the 30% name recognition gap, a combination of tactics listed above will be needed. An aggressive email program and doubling down on high reach display advertising will help introduce him to every prospective Independent voter and that is the only way to make his electoral math work.

MediaPost article: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/219115/electoral-math-your-campaign-in-digital.html